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Sun. 9/30/18

NFL:

Play the Bears -3. Played against the Bears last week having felt they were due to letdown after a big win against Seattle and a very well played game against Green Bay. Well, we won the bet with Arizona as Chicago failed to cover, but somehow this team rallied in the 4th to get a big road win. I’m on the Bears bandwagon. I was in week 1, and I still am. This is a team that has some major mojo and might just end the mojo that Fitzpatrick has going right now. It’s a good spot for them to do so here as the Bucs are off an emotional loss Monday night and now are playing on short rest. That loss took a lot out of the Bucs and I totally expect this team to come back down to earth. Remember, this is a Bucs team that is coming off two straight at home. They haven’t been on the road since week 1 when they allowed 40 points to the Saints. Sure they won, but I can promise you the Bears won’t allow 48 at home. Sure Tampa has scored at least 27 points in all 3 games but that will be tough to do today against a stingy Bears D. As for the Bears, they easily could be 3-0 and need to find a way to win today as the next two weeks ( at Miami and Home vs the Pats ) don’t get any easier. Look for a total team effort today as the Bears get it done 27-17.

Play the Patriots -6.5. I know a lot of you are wondering when the last time this Pats team lost 3 games in a row? How about 16 years ago!! Way back in 2002! That’s insane! Lets remember, that the Pats have been on the road in the past 2 weeks and played two teams desperate for a win ( jags for revenge, and the lions to avoid 0-3 ). It’s now the Pats who are desperate as a loss today would drop them THREE GAMES behind Miami, and of course without the tiebreaker. WOW! This is a very important game for NE, not only to stay in the race, but with their looming schedule. They’ll have a short week to get ready for a Thursday night game, and then they get the red hot Chiefs. They’ll also be playing with some revenge today after losing in Miami back in December. Miami is one team who does give the pats trouble. New England is only 6-4 in their last ten meetings. BUT, all 6 of those wins resulted in a patriots Cover! In fact, the margin of victory over those 6 wins is 19!! 19 sounds like a good number again. Pats win 35-16.

Play Green Bay -9.5.     If you get right down to it, the Packers could be 0-3 right now.  They were trounced on the road at Washington last week, had a miracle comeback against the Bears, and escaped with a tie against the Vikings due to some Minnesota kicking issues.  They will be thankful to be 1-1-1 and well aware that a loss here at home will make things tough for them in what is becoming a very crowded NFC. The Packers are fortunate they catch the Bills riding high off a shocking road win at Minnesota behind rookie Josh Allen’s legs more than his arm.  It is hard to travel back to back, especially as a rookie when you haven’t fully settled into your routine as a pro or starter yet. To go play Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau is a tough ask with a heavily dinged up RB behind you. I expect the Packers to find a way to frustrate Allen, even if it means another roughing the passer flag for Matthews.  I also expect Rodgers to light this Bills defense up. If you go back to the 16-17 season when he was healthy, the Pack finished the season with 3 straight blow out wins at home, scoring 38 points in each. That is the kind of output I expect today. This is the first of 3 rookies Rodgers will face this season and even not at 100%, I think he will show them who is the eventual GOAT, starting today.  I think last week was a mirage as Minnesota lacked Cook in the backfield and today will look more like the 47 and 31 that Buffalo allowed to Baltimore and LAC. Remember, 28 of the Chargers 31 were scored in the first half in that one and then they just coasted. The home team has covered in 5 straight in this H2H and that should continue today. Expect the Packers to jump all over Buffalo in the first half and never look back.  Statement game for Rodgers. Pack roll 38-13.

Play Indy/Hou Over 47.     Only 2 of the L9 in this H2H have gone over this number and one of those two times took OT to do it.  So, why is this total set so high? Well, I think a lot of it is QB play and lack of RB play. Houston has started 0-3 but perhaps more surprisingly is they have allowed at least 20 points in all three games.  Luck hasn’t produced a ton of points just yet (16, 21, & 23), but he has moved the ball efficiently and has looked better than many, including myself, had expected. He and Watson are both feeling more comfortable each week and will start trusting their bodies more and more.  Watson should be able to light up this Indy defense with his arm and legs today. Both QBs have stars outside in Hilton and Hopkins and I expect both to have huge days today. With Houston’s big play defense I kind of see this game playing out like their meeting in Houston back in ‘14 where Luck and Fitzpatrick did battle, scoring a ton of points in the first half, and Watt added a scoop and score late in a 33-28 Indy win.  Both teams come in to this dome game thinking they can win and I see a sneaky shootout. Texans 33-28 to go full circle on the game from 2014.

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