For some of you, I suppose you may be considering placing your first sports wager. For others, maybe you’ve made a play in Vegas on a trip, dabbled with an offshore account, or had access to a bookie. No matter if you are completely new to the game or a fellow seasoned player, we are all about to be in for quite an adventure with the federal legalization of sports betting in the U.S. This sanctioned expansion is going to create a breadth and depth of sports betting options yet unseen by any of us. In addition to all of the playing options we vets have known for years, we are about to see a breathtaking influx of new wager choices. From a continuation and expansion of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) beyond our wildest dreams, to a bevy of live in-game betting options, to the opportunity to play any imaginable sport at any time of day from your couch, we are all in for a wild, and potentially bumpy, ride.
Premium Picks and Analysis
Here, you will find some of our previous Premium Picks and the Detailed Analysis you would receive when you purchase a Premium Package with Max Profit Sports…
Play the Bears -3. Played against the Bears last week having felt they were due to letdown after a big win against Seattle and a very well played game against Green Bay. Well, we won the bet with Arizona as Chicago failed to cover, but somehow this team rallied in the 4th to get a big road win. I’m on the Bears bandwagon. I was in week 1, and I still am. This is a team that has some major mojo and might just end the mojo that Fitzpatrick has going right now. It’s a good spot for them to do so here as the Bucs are off an emotional loss Monday night and now are playing on short rest. That loss took a lot out of the Bucs and I totally expect this team to come back down to earth. Remember, this is a Bucs team that is coming off two straight at home. They haven’t been on the road since week 1 when they allowed 40 points to the Saints. Sure they won, but I can promise you the Bears won’t allow 48 at home. Sure Tampa has scored at least 27 points in all 3 games but that will be tough to do today against a stingy Bears D. As for the Bears, they easily could be 3-0 and need to find a way to win today as the next two weeks ( at Miami and Home vs the Pats ) don’t get any easier. Look for a total team effort today as the Bears get it done 27-17.
Play the Patriots -6.5. I know a lot of you are wondering when the last time this Pats team lost 3 games in a row? How about 16 years ago!! Way back in 2002! That’s insane! Lets remember, that the Pats have been on the road in the past 2 weeks and played two teams desperate for a win ( jags for revenge, and the lions to avoid 0-3 ). It’s now the Pats who are desperate as a loss today would drop them THREE GAMES behind Miami, and of course without the tiebreaker. WOW! This is a very important game for NE, not only to stay in the race, but with their looming schedule. They’ll have a short week to get ready for a Thursday night game, and then they get the red hot Chiefs. They’ll also be playing with some revenge today after losing in Miami back in December. Miami is one team who does give the pats trouble. New England is only 6-4 in their last ten meetings. BUT, all 6 of those wins resulted in a patriots Cover! In fact, the margin of victory over those 6 wins is 19!! 19 sounds like a good number again. Pats win 35-16.
Play Green Bay -9.5. If you get right down to it, the Packers could be 0-3 right now. They were trounced on the road at Washington last week, had a miracle comeback against the Bears, and escaped with a tie against the Vikings due to some Minnesota kicking issues. They will be thankful to be 1-1-1 and well aware that a loss here at home will make things tough for them in what is becoming a very crowded NFC. The Packers are fortunate they catch the Bills riding high off a shocking road win at Minnesota behind rookie Josh Allen’s legs more than his arm. It is hard to travel back to back, especially as a rookie when you haven’t fully settled into your routine as a pro or starter yet. To go play Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau is a tough ask with a heavily dinged up RB behind you. I expect the Packers to find a way to frustrate Allen, even if it means another roughing the passer flag for Matthews. I also expect Rodgers to light this Bills defense up. If you go back to the 16-17 season when he was healthy, the Pack finished the season with 3 straight blow out wins at home, scoring 38 points in each. That is the kind of output I expect today. This is the first of 3 rookies Rodgers will face this season and even not at 100%, I think he will show them who is the eventual GOAT, starting today. I think last week was a mirage as Minnesota lacked Cook in the backfield and today will look more like the 47 and 31 that Buffalo allowed to Baltimore and LAC. Remember, 28 of the Chargers 31 were scored in the first half in that one and then they just coasted. The home team has covered in 5 straight in this H2H and that should continue today. Expect the Packers to jump all over Buffalo in the first half and never look back. Statement game for Rodgers. Pack roll 38-13.
Play Indy/Hou Over 47. Only 2 of the L9 in this H2H have gone over this number and one of those two times took OT to do it. So, why is this total set so high? Well, I think a lot of it is QB play and lack of RB play. Houston has started 0-3 but perhaps more surprisingly is they have allowed at least 20 points in all three games. Luck hasn’t produced a ton of points just yet (16, 21, & 23), but he has moved the ball efficiently and has looked better than many, including myself, had expected. He and Watson are both feeling more comfortable each week and will start trusting their bodies more and more. Watson should be able to light up this Indy defense with his arm and legs today. Both QBs have stars outside in Hilton and Hopkins and I expect both to have huge days today. With Houston’s big play defense I kind of see this game playing out like their meeting in Houston back in ‘14 where Luck and Fitzpatrick did battle, scoring a ton of points in the first half, and Watt added a scoop and score late in a 33-28 Indy win. Both teams come in to this dome game thinking they can win and I see a sneaky shootout. Texans 33-28 to go full circle on the game from 2014.
Firestone’s Daily Free Picks
NCAA FOOTBALL FREEBIES
Central Michigan +5
Western Kentucky +3
Texas Tech +6
Utah State -20
Logan’s Daily Free Picks
Sunday, 6/9/19 – 2-1 Freebies yesterday…Game of the Week goes off today as part of our 3-pack. Get the entire card for just $25 HERE. We are lights out this season in Games of the Week!
Hou -1.5 -100
LAD/SF Under 7.5
Saturday, 6/8/19 – Sorry for the absence of freebies of late, folks…been a ton going on over here! Best of luck!
NYY/Cle Over 10
LAD -1.5 -125
Sea/LAA Under 9.5
A Soccer (Football/Futbol) Betting Basics Walkthrough
Why bet soccer?
One big reason to be interested in soccer as a wagering option is the fact that the entire world has professional leagues for the sport, meaning that almost any time of day, any day of the year, you can find a soccer game on which to place a bet. If you focus the majority of your betting on American sports, your window of betting options is limited to a relatively finite number of hours each day and week. World football allows you to fill in many of those dead betting hours with wonderful wager options. Continue reading A Soccer (Football/Futbol) Betting Basics Walkthrough
A Quick Overview of Soccer in Italy
For those unfamiliar, this will serve as a quick breakdown of the layout and structure of club football (soccer) in Italy.
The top tier of Italian football is called Serie A (20 teams). The divisions below Serie A begin Serie B (22 teams), Serie C (57 teams in 3 groups), and Serie D (162 teams in 9 groups). Serie A features two of the world’s biggest and most supported clubs in AC Milan and Juventus, who just recently snatched Cristiano Ronaldo away from Spain’s Real Madrid. The league just recently signed a huge contract with ESPN for viewers in the United States! ESPN+ will be showing on average 9 matches per week, while a match of the week will be featured on ESPN, ESPN 2, and/or ESPN Deportes. Seasons typically begin in August and end in May with each team playing each other twice (once each on each other’s home pitch) for a total of 38 games for each team. At the end of each season, the bottom three teams are relegated down to Serie B, while three other teams are promoted up from Serie B for the following season. Continue reading A Quick Overview of Soccer in Italy
Logan’s Tip of the Week
Week of 9/24/18 – 9/30/18:
To tease or not to tease in the NFL?
The betting public loves their teasers. Bringing two 7 point NFL favorites down to -1 each is just something many of us cannot resist. Sure, there are instances when a teaser makes some good sense. But, like the Hard Ways on a craps table, there is a reason why they are available to the betting public. People love them but the odds still favor the house. There is an old generality that winners cover in the NFL. Roughly 80% of winners cover their number long term in the NFL, so, let’s think about this. What do you tease most often? Most likely, you improve the chances a heavy favorite covers by lowering their spread to something under a field goal with the mentality that they just need to win by a typical increment like 3 or better. However, if you consider that around 4 out of every 5 winners in the NFL cover their spread anyway, is it really worth adding another team to the equation in a two-team teaser? If you like a team enough to win, chances are they will cover the spread. Essentially, you are betting that one of your two teased teams will be part of the 20% that does NOT cover in the NFL but still wins the game. Odd approach when you get right down to it. If both teams cover as the odds say they should, you would’ve gone 2-0 on individual bets on the two teams with their unaltered lines and made more than your 1 teaser win produced if you wagered the same amount. If you have good rationale why your specific teaser combo is worthwhile, by all means, but, in my experience, most teasers are slapped together so that you don’t have to lay 8 points with a defensive minded team that has trouble scoring or something of the sort. As always, plan ahead and think through your wagers. Good luck!
2nd Leg Pointers and Pitfalls
I want to discuss some things to look for when betting the 2nd leg of two-legged matches in soccer/world football. In many tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League, as well as the later rounds and/or finals of many countries’ domestic cup tournaments, teams often play a home and away set of matches with the aggregate result deciding which team advances (or lifts the trophy in a final). Continue reading 2nd Leg Pointers and Pitfalls
1 MLB thing to watch in September
As we head down the stretch of the MLB season, here is something I’ll be keeping an eye on. With just over 40 games remaining, Washington is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. However, things may not be as bleak as they seem. For starters, they still have the best lineup top to bottom in the NL East. Secondly, and maybe most importantly, they are chasing two extremely inexperienced teams in Philadelphia and Atlanta. Experience so often plays a major role in a pennant race and should factor into the Nats run at the playoffs. The Nationals have the experience while the Braves and Phillies do not! Lastly, Scherzer is a force on another level from any other pitcher in the division, even the Phils’ Nola. He can carry this team on his back in his starts and inspire them to rise above. With 9 more games against the Phillies and 3 more against Atlanta, I see the Nationals climbing back into the NL East race before all is said and done.
3 NFL Longshot Super Bowl Contenders
Every August, the so-called pundits and experts of the NFL choose to brainwash fans with the “fact” that the Patriots, Packers, Steelers, or Seahawks will win the Super Bowl. Rarely does anyone give the longshot a long look. Well, after last year, that needs to change. The Eagles entered last season as 40-1 longshots to win it all. Here are 3 teams that could surprise everyone this year by hoisting Lombardi.
1) Denver broncos 33-1
2) Atlanta 17-1
3) Carolina 25-1.
My personal 2018 longshot selection is The Denver Broncos at 33-1.
Denver’s defense is getting older by the day, but adding a key draft piece like Bradley Chubb should help to keep that defense playing young. On the other side of the ball, Case Keenum could be the QB Elway has been looking for to manage the game and keep that defense off the field. The offense should be better this year and the defense will once again be an NFL POWERHOUSE.
EPL Surprise Champs?
Going into the opening of the Premier League season last year, pundits and prognosticators alike were justifiably concerned about how Tottenham would perform without a true home pitch. The new stadium was in full construction mode and Spurs were stuck at Wembley for all of 17-18’s campaign. After just a so-so start, the Spurs quickly put those concerns to rest and promptly finished top 3 for the second straight season, behind the two clubs from Manchester.
The Spurs, rather quietly I might add, have put one of the best, and easily one of the most consistent, teams together and, I believe, are poised at a title run this season. Never was that more evident to me than during this summer’s World Cup which showcased Tottenham’s many established and rising star performing at star levels. With the talen, depth, and coaching consistency and ingenuity that Spurs have again this season, they are my sneaky choice to steal the English Premier League.
Tottenham Hotspur 14:1 to win 18-19 EPL
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