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Logan’s Tip of the Week

Week of 9/24/18 – 9/30/18:

To tease or not to tease in the NFL?

The betting public loves their teasers.  Bringing two 7 point NFL favorites down to -1 each is just something many of us cannot resist.  Sure, there are instances when a teaser makes some good sense.  But, like the Hard Ways on a craps table, there is a reason why they are available to the betting public.  People love them but the odds still favor the house.  There is an old generality that winners cover in the NFL.  Roughly 80% of winners cover their number long term in the NFL, so, let’s think about this.  What do you tease most often?  Most likely, you improve the chances a heavy favorite covers by lowering their spread to something under a field goal with the mentality that they just need to win by a typical increment like 3 or better.  However, if you consider that around 4 out of every 5 winners in the NFL cover their spread anyway, is it really worth adding another team to the equation in a two-team teaser?  If you like a team enough to win, chances are they will cover the spread.  Essentially, you are betting that one of your two teased teams will be part of the 20% that does NOT cover in the NFL but still wins the game.  Odd approach when you get right down to it.  If both teams cover as the odds say they should, you would’ve gone 2-0 on individual bets on the two teams with their unaltered lines and made more than your 1 teaser win produced if you wagered the same amount.  If you have good rationale why your specific teaser combo is worthwhile, by all means, but, in my experience, most teasers are slapped together so that you don’t have to lay 8 points with a defensive minded team that has trouble scoring or something of the sort.  As always, plan ahead and think through your wagers.  Good luck!

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