Here, you will find some of our previous Premium Picks and the Detailed Analysis you would receive when you purchase a Premium Package with Max Profit Sports…
Play the Bears -3. Played against the Bears last week having felt they were due to letdown after a big win against Seattle and a very well played game against Green Bay. Well, we won the bet with Arizona as Chicago failed to cover, but somehow this team rallied in the 4th to get a big road win. I’m on the Bears bandwagon. I was in week 1, and I still am. This is a team that has some major mojo and might just end the mojo that Fitzpatrick has going right now. It’s a good spot for them to do so here as the Bucs are off an emotional loss Monday night and now are playing on short rest. That loss took a lot out of the Bucs and I totally expect this team to come back down to earth. Remember, this is a Bucs team that is coming off two straight at home. They haven’t been on the road since week 1 when they allowed 40 points to the Saints. Sure they won, but I can promise you the Bears won’t allow 48 at home. Sure Tampa has scored at least 27 points in all 3 games but that will be tough to do today against a stingy Bears D. As for the Bears, they easily could be 3-0 and need to find a way to win today as the next two weeks ( at Miami and Home vs the Pats ) don’t get any easier. Look for a total team effort today as the Bears get it done 27-17.
Play the Patriots -6.5. I know a lot of you are wondering when the last time this Pats team lost 3 games in a row? How about 16 years ago!! Way back in 2002! That’s insane! Lets remember, that the Pats have been on the road in the past 2 weeks and played two teams desperate for a win ( jags for revenge, and the lions to avoid 0-3 ). It’s now the Pats who are desperate as a loss today would drop them THREE GAMES behind Miami, and of course without the tiebreaker. WOW! This is a very important game for NE, not only to stay in the race, but with their looming schedule. They’ll have a short week to get ready for a Thursday night game, and then they get the red hot Chiefs. They’ll also be playing with some revenge today after losing in Miami back in December. Miami is one team who does give the pats trouble. New England is only 6-4 in their last ten meetings. BUT, all 6 of those wins resulted in a patriots Cover! In fact, the margin of victory over those 6 wins is 19!! 19 sounds like a good number again. Pats win 35-16.
Play Green Bay -9.5. If you get right down to it, the Packers could be 0-3 right now. They were trounced on the road at Washington last week, had a miracle comeback against the Bears, and escaped with a tie against the Vikings due to some Minnesota kicking issues. They will be thankful to be 1-1-1 and well aware that a loss here at home will make things tough for them in what is becoming a very crowded NFC. The Packers are fortunate they catch the Bills riding high off a shocking road win at Minnesota behind rookie Josh Allen’s legs more than his arm. It is hard to travel back to back, especially as a rookie when you haven’t fully settled into your routine as a pro or starter yet. To go play Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau is a tough ask with a heavily dinged up RB behind you. I expect the Packers to find a way to frustrate Allen, even if it means another roughing the passer flag for Matthews. I also expect Rodgers to light this Bills defense up. If you go back to the 16-17 season when he was healthy, the Pack finished the season with 3 straight blow out wins at home, scoring 38 points in each. That is the kind of output I expect today. This is the first of 3 rookies Rodgers will face this season and even not at 100%, I think he will show them who is the eventual GOAT, starting today. I think last week was a mirage as Minnesota lacked Cook in the backfield and today will look more like the 47 and 31 that Buffalo allowed to Baltimore and LAC. Remember, 28 of the Chargers 31 were scored in the first half in that one and then they just coasted. The home team has covered in 5 straight in this H2H and that should continue today. Expect the Packers to jump all over Buffalo in the first half and never look back. Statement game for Rodgers. Pack roll 38-13.
Play Indy/Hou Over 47. Only 2 of the L9 in this H2H have gone over this number and one of those two times took OT to do it. So, why is this total set so high? Well, I think a lot of it is QB play and lack of RB play. Houston has started 0-3 but perhaps more surprisingly is they have allowed at least 20 points in all three games. Luck hasn’t produced a ton of points just yet (16, 21, & 23), but he has moved the ball efficiently and has looked better than many, including myself, had expected. He and Watson are both feeling more comfortable each week and will start trusting their bodies more and more. Watson should be able to light up this Indy defense with his arm and legs today. Both QBs have stars outside in Hilton and Hopkins and I expect both to have huge days today. With Houston’s big play defense I kind of see this game playing out like their meeting in Houston back in ‘14 where Luck and Fitzpatrick did battle, scoring a ton of points in the first half, and Watt added a scoop and score late in a 33-28 Indy win. Both teams come in to this dome game thinking they can win and I see a sneaky shootout. Texans 33-28 to go full circle on the game from 2014.
P. Logan – MLB
Play Pit -170 ***TOP PLAY*** Been waiting for this game. Wish the line was a bit lower, but I’d be a moron to think Vegas doesn’t see some of the same value in this that I do. You get what you pay for, right? Pittsburgh comes home here to get the Royals who recently got RED HOT…at home. KC rattled off an amazing home run of late and now hit the road for a game for which I can’t find any motivation for them. The Royals would have to go 11-2 in their final 13 to avoid 100 losses, so that can’t be a motivator. They are still 7 games back of the White Sox to escape the AL Central basement, so that can’t be the driving force. This is an interleague game on no rest on the road in late September for the second worst team in baseball. Could there be a worse spot for them? Meanwhile, the Pirates come home where they are 40-34 sitting at exactly .500. They battled out a 3-3 road trip at StL and Mil, two playoff contenders who are great at home. Before that the Bucs won 5 in a row here in Pittsburgh. They have the pitching matchups set to try to sweep this series against a 22-50 road team and I think they will go for it. These teams haven’t met since 2015, so there is little in terms of revenge, although the Royals did take the last two games these two played. The Royals are actually 9-9 with Keller on the mound, but the silver lining for us is that they are just 2-6 when he pitches on the road! And the Royals don’t help matters as they are 0-5 L5 in Interleague road games vs RHP. They are also 1-5 L6 against the NL Central, 19-40 off a loss L59, and 16-41 on the road vs RHP L57. The Pirates are stunning in Interleague play…4-0 L4 at home against AL competition, 20-8 L28 against the AL, 8-3 L11 against the AL Central, and an amazing 46-15 L61 against AL teams with losing records. Look for the Pirates to cruise to 8-2 L10 against RHP from the AL tonight. Pittsburgh 5-1.
MPSC – NFL:
Play Chicago -4.5. Every casual fan’s gut reaction here is to say, “You can’t play against Russell Wilson in Primetime!” They would be correct in that Wilson has been dominant on Mondays especially since ‘12. However, looking at this year’s Seattle team, you are literally just playing against Russell Wilson tonight. This is not your older brother’s Hawks team. No Baldwin tonight due to injury, no Lynch for a while now in the backfield, no Chancellor, Wagner, Bennett, Sherman, Graham, and on and on. Russell has had to do almost everything for a while now, and will be asked to do even more this season as all the new faces try to find an identity under Carroll. They are probably going to have to get most of their wins in that hellpit they call a home stadium. But, bad luck, Hawks, you aren’t at home again this week. Instead, you are away at a Bears team off a devastating 4th quarter collapse against the eventual GOAT at Lambeau last Sunday night. It would be easy to say that the Bears should fall on their faces here, but I, for one, was impressed with new coach Nagy’s postgame remarks. He sounded confident and calm and I think he has the full backing of this young team. The gift of the young is their ability to bounce back. I think they will use that loss to close down this Hawks team late when they again have a double digit lead. If you think about it, the gameplanning for Green Bay and Seattle right now has to be similar. A threat or two outside, little established run game, and a superhuman QB who extends plays and creates something out of nothing and against whom you can never take your foot off the accelerator. I don’t know that I am ready to say this is a playoff Bears team as they are still raw at QB, but I think they are a .500 team and I think they will get it done at home here with the Hawks knowing in the back of their mind that they go home for Dallas next and then have an easy road game at Arizona that could put them at 2-2 when they come home to face the Division favorite Rams. Chicago 24-16.
J. Firestone – MLB:
Play the Dodgers -160. High line here for for a game that means so much. LA returns home after a ten game road trip that saw them go 6-4 including a very impressive series win this weekend in St. Louis. The trip ended with a dud as they were shut out last night. Although the dodgers are only 3 games over 500 at home this year, they did have a nice run there before this recent road trip. LA has won 7 of their last 10 games at dodger stadium. That included some dramatic finishes against Arizona that seemed to have broken their backs. There’s some mojo back on LA and I expect it to continue tonight in a HUGE series opener. They’re catching Rockies pitcher John Gray at the right time. He’s been struggling a bit on the road as he’s allowed 19 runs in his last 10 innings pitched outside of Colorado. He’s also pitched twice this year against LA, and both weren’t that good. He’s allowed 6 runs in only 10 innings. The winner tonight takes sole possession of first place in the west. And I strongly feel this situation tonight calls for a Dodger win. LA 6-3.
J. Firestone – NFL
Play the Pats/Jags OVER 44.5. A rematch of the AFC Championship Game where 44 points were scored. In a week two meeting that is just a tad bit less important, I expect the scoreboard to be filling up with points. We all know the Jags are out for revenge, but without Fournette who appears destined for the bench in street clothes, they’ll have to pass the ball. Bortles was very good against the Pats last season throwing 7 yards shy of 300 and a QB rating of 99! Brady too threw for almost 300 in that game. The Jags D will be very tough on the run today but Brady seemed to have luck dissecting them in the middle of the field. Could be a great opportunity for Gronk, or even a guy like Dorsett to have a big game. We also have two very good kickers to help us out. Both teams should put themselves in scoring position for most of the day and I expect them both to capitalize. I’m seeing a 34-27 game today
P. Logan – NFL
Play Detroit/San Francisco Over 48.5. Well, we all sat and watched in horror as Matt Patricia’s Detroit Lions got picked apart at home by the Jets 48-17 behind Matt Stafford’s 4 INTs. The 49ers come home after the Vikings handed Jimmy G his first NFL loss 24-16 in Minnesota. The good news for San Fran is they moved the ball well on a nasty defense in an even nastier home stadium. They had a turnover inside the five going in, or else, they may have ended with mid 20s points. Last week was not indicative of Matt Stafford and we expect the kinks to get ironed out by the vet this practice week and that offense to click as they can attack San Fran similarly to how Minnesota could with Cousins/Diggs/Thielen. If you remember Patricia’s first two weeks of ‘17-’18 as DC of the Patriots, they struggled mightily out of the gate defensively before finding a groove. They allowed 42, 20, 33, and 33 in their first four games, so Detroit may want to expect a similar slow start. But, like the Patriots, the Lions have the ability to outscore teams in games where they concede a lot and I think we will see that kind of back and forth game here. Both teams should lean on the expensive arms they have under center as both run games still lack due to injury or new players in key roles. Since ‘11 in 3 meetings, these two scored 49, 46, 44 all with offenses drastically less impressive than the ones they possess now. A couple nice trends to help us out today, as well. Detroit has played each of their L4 games Over after a Monday Night game and have also played 4 of 5 Over after losing by double digits at home in their previous game. With San Fran having played 5 of 7 Over at home and Detroit having played 6 of 8 Over vs the NFC, we are ready for a shootout. 31-28 someone.
MPSC – MLB
Play St. Louis +135. Getaway day for the Dodgers here after a long, grueling road trip that saw them accomplish all they could’ve dreamed of…6-3 thus far, overtook Colorado for the NL West lead, and took the first three of this series from the Cards. No matter what happens tonight, they are assured of going home tomorrow (to face Colorado, no less) leading the West in wins and controlling their own destiny. The Cardinals are in a different place. They have now fallen 6.5 behind Chicago for the Central lead, 3.5 behind Milwaukee for the first Wild Card spot, and now a game back of Colorado for the second Wild Card spot. It’s do or die for this team as they have dropped 4 of 6 here at home and risk being swept in a four game series against a team they might see in October if they make it. Odd as it is to say given his health, results, and ?season?, they should be thankful they have Wainwright on the mound tonight. He has the most late season and playoff atmosphere experience of anyone on this staff and will know how to pitch in primetime against the younger, more inexperienced Stripling. Throw ERA and W/L out the window tonight. This is a must have for the Cards. 4-2 St. Louis tonight under the lights.
Sat. 9/16/18 – MPSC – NCAAF
Play Missouri/Purdue Over 65.5 – 7:30p EST. It’s ironic that the only meeting between these two major college programs was last September, a 35-3 Purdue win. That game stayed wayyyyyy under the posted total of 76, yet here we are staring down the barrel of 65.5 points today with neither team having crested that number in any of their combined four games this season. So, what in the world are we seeing here?! Well, let’s start with the fact that the favorite is the road Mizz team who is playing with MAJOR revenge from that thumping last season on their home field. In September games, Mizzou has played Over to 6-2-1 L9. And with the Tigers the favorites today, we believe they will dictate the tempo and pace of play. This is a good thing for us here, as they have averaged 44.3 ppg in their L10 with game totals averaging 68.4 ppg over that span! Purdue, while not prone to be a shootout team, should be chasing this game and will have to open up. They have offensive capabilities, having averaged 25.6 ppg over their L8 games, with game totals of 48.5 over that stretch. They’ve also been a great Overs team at home playing Over to the tune of 35-17-1 L53 at home. We have a funny feeling this one gets over by the end of the third quarter in a back and forth fun one. Look for something like 42-35 Mizz here.
Play LSU/Auburn Under 44.5 – 3:30p EST. ***TOP PLAY*** This game always holds a special place in our company’s heart…it may not go under every year, but it, to us, epitomizes SEC football. Two teams that go to absolute war against each other every year. It doesn’t matter which team is ranked higher, what star power they possess, or what time of year they meet, this always produces a game that a true college football lover can sit and watch in stunned silence. If you are someone who likes patterns, this series has alternated winners for 5 straight meetings, with LSU an outright dog winner at home 27-23 last October. Furthering the pattern, the games have alternated Over and Under the posted total for 8 straight meetings with last year (good news for us!) going over 47. This means that 4 straight meetings at Auburn have stayed Under. And, both patterns and today’s line/total say we should have an Auburn winner and an Under this year. We are pumped to see the lowest posted total this series has seen since ‘08, where Vegas set the bar at 37! LSU has started strong, holding a solid Miami offense to just 21 points and then following that up with a dominant shutout of lowly SELA. Based on the posted line and total today, Auburn should score 27 points…however, we are already at an advantage as LSU has not allowed 27+ to an opponent in 364 days (12 games)! Over that span, they have allowed an average of just 18.3 ppg and there was not a single cupcake in that bunch. Based on the same math, LSU is slated to score 17 points here. However, Auburn has only allowed more than 17 twice in their L7 games. The two games where they allowed more were a revenge game for Georgia in the SEC Championship and in the New Years Day loss to UCF in a game we have to wonder if Auburn’s heart was really in. The 5 games they held opponents to 17 or less included Georgia, Alabama, and Washington! This team can play some defense and LSU shouldn’t have nearly the offensive punch that any of those 3 did last season! Oddly, LSU has played 6 of 7 Under when away at a team with a winning home record, while Auburn has played 7 of 8 Under when home vs. a team with a winning road record. LSU will only be able to stay in this game through good defense and will rely on the same approach that has built them as they have played Under to the tune of 20-8-1 in their L29 conference games. Also being a good Unders team early in the seasons with 8 of 11 September games falling Under the total, we will look for the LSU Tigers to try to shorten the game away here at the Auburn Tigers. Don’t be surprised to see a 6-3 game at halftime with the tone set for a second half trench battle. 20-10 Auburn.
Sat. 9/15/18 – P. Logan – Soccer
10a EST – Play Man City -2.5 -125 ***Top Play*** Ok, so, Pep has to be pissed right now, no? They limped to a 2-1 win at home vs Newcastle before the break after drawing 1-1 with Wolves to break their perfect start and put them behind several teams in the table. They haven’t failed to score 3 or more in a PL game in 3 straight matches since they scored 2 five times in a row last Nov-Dec. They followed that stretch up with two 4 goal outpourings. I see them exploding here, even without DeBruyne. Pep is a master tactician and will spent maniacal amounts of time working on ways to create chances without his midfield star. City has won the L3 in this H2H in Manchester, but most importantly for us, they did not conceded in any of those. I can’t see them conceding here either and with Fulham already having conceded 2+ in each of their first 4 matches to inferior offenses compared to City, this has disaster written all over it. City has 8 goals in 2 home games this season and scored 3+ in 13 of 19 home matches last season. They lead the league with 11 goals in 4 games and I think they will find a way to irritate short-tempered Mitrovic who leads the PL with 4 goals, but is always a ticking time bomb for a red card. I’m seeing 5-0 City here.
10a EST – Play Chelsea -2 -110. We have learned a little about what Sarri-ball will look like thus far, but I think we will see Chelsea’s most complete performance yet today against the Welsh side Cardiff City. Chelsea has dominated the entire league thus far in touches and passes, which should totally minimize Cardiff’s league leading 50 shots (even though their 2 goals scored makes for the worst conversion rate by far in the EPL!). Cardiff make their first trip to London since being promoted and it should prove as daunting as it sounds. Cardiff has yet to score in two EPL road games this season and they were at Huddersfield and Bournemouth. How do we expect them to score or compete at Stamford Bridge?! Chelsea has beaten Cardiff the only two times they have faced them in London, both by a 4-1 scoreline. That would be plenty to get the job done here, yet I don’t even think Cardiff can muster a goal. Chelsea led at halftime in 15 of their 21 wins last season and have dominated late in games thus far this season. The combination will prove too much for Cardiff. I see 4-0 Chelsea here.
Fri. 9/14/18 – P. Logan – MLB
Play KC +120. The Twins come to Kauffman to face a Royals team that has quietly won 11 of 13 at home recently. 10 of those 11 wins came against righties. The opponents have not been stellar in that run, but the Twins on the road are hardly stellar either, nor is their starter tonight, Berrios. The Twins are 24-48 on the road this season…a stark contrast from their home record of 43-31. Berrios fits their mold, as besides from being 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA his L3 starts, his road ERA is .93 higher than his overall ERA and the Twins are just 4-9 in his road starts, as opposed to 11-5 in his home starts. Further, the Twins are just 2-6 when Berrios starts against the Royals. On the flip side, Lopez, going for KC, certainly doesn’t have the greatest numbers this season, but in his lone start against Minnesota which was just a week ago, he went 8 and allowed just 1 hit and 1 run in a 4-1 win at Minnesota. The Royals have absolutely dominated the Twins over the recent years at home, having won 39 of the L56 meetings there. And tonight’s ump, Garry Cederstrom, has favored the home team with a record of 61-28 to the home squads in his L89 games behind the plate. Ride the good value on a hot home team against a lousy road team. Royals 5-3.
Fri. 9/15/18 – J. Firestone – MLB
Play LAD/StL U7.5 -110. Rematch of Buehler v. Flaherty here from 8/22 where the two young arms sparkled in LA. Buehler went 7 scoreless, allowing just 3H and 2BB while striking out 9. Flaherty went stride for stride, tossing a no-no into the 6th, before allowing a solo HR, his only hit allowed in 6IP, while fanning 10. The Cards will be desperate to win here as they hold just a one game lead on LA for the final wild card spot after last night’s 9-7 loss. We have seen both of these teams’ offenses mysteriously disappear at times lately, and we expect that again here behind two powerful strikeout arms. More strikeouts means wiggling out of jams with less than two outs and often saves some runs, which is key with a total so low. Before last night, these two teams had played under 8 in 5 straight and 7 of 9 H2H, 6 of those being under 7.5. And over their L3 starts each, these two hurlers have averaged game totals at or under tonight’s total. Both have ERAs right around 3 and barring their last starts, from which they both should bounce back, they had allowed 2 or less in 7 straight and 6 straight, respectively. Flaherty has pitched Under to 11-4-1 L16 against teams with winning records, while LA has played under in 9 of their L11 against winning teams. In a series that has seen the Unders play out in 35 of the L52, we have to back the Unders here in more September playoff atmosphere baseball. 3-1 Cards again here in the rematch.
Fri. 9/15/18 – MPSC – NCAAF
Play Memphis -28. First time meeting for Memphis and Georgia State and it promises to be a lopsided one. Georgia State is 1-1 thus far – a 24-20 home win against Kennesaw State and then a 41-7 spanking last week at NC State. Memphis is also 1-1 – losing by a point at Navy last week but demolishing Mercer at home in Week 1, scoing 56 points…IN THE FIRST HALF. This will be a key point in our argument for laying the large number tonight…this Tiger team can flat out score…against almost anyone, but especially against bad teams and smaller programs. If you exclude major conference big programs (UCLA and IASt), before last week the Tigers had scored 590 points in their L12 games. That is over 49 points per game! When you can produce offensively like this, it widens your margin for error when trying to cover a big number like tonight’s. Even on that 49 average, they could allow 21 point and still push. GAST has only scored more than 21 points three times in their L9 and none of those 3 were against quality opponents like Memphis (Kennesaw St, WKU, and TxSt). Look for Memphis to do what they did to Mercer and pounce on GASt early and often and coast to the cover with a defensive focused second half. 52-17 Tigers.
Thu. 9/14/18 – P. Logan – NFL
Play Cin PK. As a bettor, your hackles will likely be raised when you think about playing against a team who just won 47-3 and will be playing with major revenge for being knocked out of the playoff race in the dying minutes of Week 17 by our Bengals last year. However, we see this as a huge statement game for Cincy. Home opener after a nice road comeback win at Indy in Luck’s return. Also, a division game against a Ravens team who picked apart a mess of a Bills squad in Baltimore. How much were the Ravens tested there? Don’t think they’ll have the chops for a trench battle tonight on the road. Different brand of football tonight. Even though it’s just Week 2, this trend has some relevance given the situation…The Bengals are 9-2 ATS L11 at home against teams with winning records. In other words, they get up for big games. The Bengals also always start seasons well, most likely due to the consistency of the coaching, QB, and core of the team. They are 18-7-2 ATS L27 September games. Both teams have been great cover teams within their division and in Week 2 of late, so nothing to dice them up with there. But, I think all the new weaponry outside for the Ravens could lead to some wrong routes and big turnovers tonight against a hungry Bengals defense who won’t be playing downtrodden and way behind like Buffalo’s was last week. The Underdog in this series has covered in 7 of 8, which until this recent line move, was a nice stat haha. However, Baltimore is just 4-9 ATS in their L13 trips to Cincy. We are backing the Bengals tonight for a 34-21 victory!
Thu. 9/14/18 – J. Firestone – MLB
Play the Rockies -135. After last night’s dramatic walkoff winner, I have a feeling the nail might have been driven into the Dbacks coffin. Colorado is now 8-3 in their last 11 games while Arizona is the complete opposite at 3-8 in their last 11. Colorado now owns a 1.5 game lead in the division over LA and is in my opinion in a much more MUST win situation here. After today’s game, the Rockies head out on a 9 game road troop which will include 3 in LA. They need to take advantage of this DBACKS skid here at home before leaving town. Colorado will have maybe their hottest pitcher on the hill today as Kevin Freeland has pitched in 9 straight games where he’s allowed 3 or less runs. In that span he’s got an incredible 6 wins and 8 quality starts. On the other side we find Clay Buckholtz who really has had only 1 bad start all season. We remain confident that he’s not as good as his numbers would say he is, and we feel this is the perfect optoday. portunity to expose that. He’s going to get roughed up today against this Rockies team hoping to continue their momentum into their road trip. Rockies win 7-3
Thu. 9/14/18 – MPSC – NCAAF
Play BC -4.5. Odd to see BC as a conference favorite these days. Even more so to see them as one on the road. However, this seems to be the continued turning point for this team after some years of abysmal football. Last year was a huge leap forward and this season promises to be another, although that will require a win here. Oddly, this H2H series has featured the road team as the victor in four straight meetings. This then means that BC is set up tonight with revenge. Wake came into Amherst and thumped the Eagles 34-10 last September, despite both teams producing similar yardage numbers in the game. BC has certainly improved, but I’m not sure Wake has kept pace. The Demon Deacons opened their season with an OT road win at Tulane and then a home win, but no cover, against Towson. Dating back to last season, they have now failed to cover in 4 straight. BC, on the other hand, has only failed to cover ONCE in their L12 games! This means they must have been a good conference cover team last season and that is true as they are 6-0-1 ATS in their L7 conference games. This is clearly a team that Vegas is continually undervaluing and with two cupcakes to start their schedule, we think they are still a week or two away from catching up with. Tonight, back the team that has been developing on both sides of the ball to take down the team who is 3-7 ATS in their L10 Thursday night tilts. BC 34-23.
Wed. 9/12/18 – P. Logan MLB:
Play Oak/Bal Over 9.5 -110. ***MLB Totals of the Week***. With the Royals getting hot of late at home, you’ve now got the O’s as your worst team in the league on their own. Already over 100 losses, they also give up the most runs in the league with 798 in 141 games so far. Their home games average 9.64 runs per, which compliments the A’s absurd road average of 9.96! The last three meetings in this H2H have been low scoring but each featured a staff star. The 6 before that did not and all 6 reached tonight’s number, averaging 12.3 per game. Hendriks is totally hitable and Cashner has a 5+ ERA his L3 starts and has allowed at least 3 runs in 6 of 7 (avg 4.4 per). He has never pitched more than six IP against Oakland in 4 tries. The A’s have played 8 of 10 Over as their offense prepares for the playoffs but their starting rotation has been decimated by injury. It doesn’t hurt having bill miller behind the plate as he has umped overs at 5-1-1 L7 and when he has an Oakland game, the overs pace out at 6-1. Baltimore will keep it close, but I see a 7-5 final here.
Wed. 9/12/18 – J. Firestone MLB:
Play CWS -120. The White Sox put their current 11-5 road run on the line against the suddenly unbeatable at home Royals in G3 of their series tonight. Kansas City has won 10 of 11 at home coming in, including the first two in this series. Despite battling for worst record in the league with Baltimore, they are showing signs of life and reasons for optimism for next year down the stretch. Luckily, the White Sox, who came into this series on an 11-3 road run, have the solid lefty Rodon on the mound tonight to stop KC’s little run. His last 2 starts have been rough by his standards, allowing 4 runs in each. However, before that, he had been lights out since the All-Star break, with the Sox winning 7 of his 8 starts and with him only allowing more than two runs once (and it was just 3!) in those 8 outings. In fact, that run included 3 outings where he did not allow a run, and 6 of which he pitched 7+ innings. This could be key tonight to minimize the bullpen’s role to their key relievers, as the pen has been solid on the backend their last 10 games (3.26 ERA). The Royals have struggled against lefties this season, hitting just .231 (.14 lower than their team average) and going just 15-28. Also, their great run at home gets a little watered down when you look into it a bit further…the 10 of 11 came from the last game of a Toronto series, 2 against Detroit, 3 against Baltimore, 2 against an unmotivated Cleveland team, and the first two here. No playoff contenders battling for a postseason spot. Also, they only faced one lefty in that whole stretch, Detroit’s Boyd (and, technically, he’s only been a lefty since he was 7 years old haha). Skoglund goes for the Royals, making his first start since May. His last two starts were shellings of 6 ER each, in just 9.1 total IP, allowing 5 HRs. He lost his last four starts in May, which I doubt he will forget if he struggles early here. I see the Sox getting a couple early and never looking back. 6-2 CWS.
Sun. 9/9/18 – MPSC NFL:
Play Minnesota -6.5. Weird line on the surface to many’s eyes, as Jimmy G has never even lost a start for San Fran and they find themselves a 6.5 point underdog and moving up more and more. However, as you start analyzing this a little deeper, it should make more and more sense to you. Minnesota has not lost to San Fran at home in over 20 years, which is just longer than our handicapping service has been running. It is just 4 meetings over that span, but the Vikes outscored San Fran 126-60. Minnesota scored at least 24 in all 4 of those games and allowed over 16 just once. Now, you might say that the data is skewed since Minnesota played all of those in a different home venue. But, I say this is even more of an advantage for us today. U.S. Bank Stadium is an absolute house of horrors for opponents. I don’t know if even Arrowhead when the Chiefs are good or Gilette in the playoffs have as much of an impact on games as this place does for the Vikes. And on opening day, knowing the Vikes are notoriously hot starters (7-1 ATS L8 in September)?! Jimmy G and his young coach and team have not dealt with a situation or venue like this yet. Look at his road starts down the stretch for Minnesota last season…at the Rams (is that even considered a road game?!), at the Bears (enough said), and at Houston (no DeShaun Watson). They pale in comparison to this daunting task today. Last year the Vikes lost just one game at home (14-7 to Indy) and that includes a playoff matchup against Drew Brees. And this year they have Cook healthy and an improved QB in Cousins. Meanwhile, San Fran spent their time building offensive plans around McKinnon (an ex-Vike) and now he’s done for the year. I just can’t see any conceivable way the Niners can make this road trip remotely successful. Vikes 27-16.
Play Seattle/Denver Over 42. Public perception here still lingers that these are two teams built around defense. But as time and age and the fluidity of the ever-changing NFL has drifted along, I think we are about to find very different Seattle and Denver teams. They aren’t as deep and fast as they once were on the defensive side of the ball and they are both going to find ways to win with offense. We all know Russell Wilson can take over games and I think this Denver offense should be improved, as well, with upgrades at RB and QB. This series, for having two of the most feared defenses for quite some time now, has been surprisingly high-scoring. Four meetings in a row have reached today’s number and 8 of the L10 have done the same with an average of 49.7 points per game! You probably would’ve never guessed that! It stands to reason then that 6 of the L7 meetings in Denver have gone Over. In fact, Denver is very much an early season Overs team recently. They are 7-1 Over the number in their L8 Game 1s and 6-0 Over in their L6 September games. Expect both teams to come out firing and looking desperate for a win to jumpstart their seasons after both missing the playoffs last year. 26-23 someone.
Play Miami +1. At first glance, this game looks like an easy one for the Titans. They’re coming off an incredible season where they won a road playoff game and have the talent on both side of the ball to do it again. On the other side, Miami is a complete guessing game. QB coming back from injury. Traded best receiver in Landry and a RB who has a lot to prove. Wait, we like Miami!?!? YES! Those who really watch the NFL know that Miami is a real pesky team, especially at home. It’s a tough place to play because of the weather. Familiarity plays a huge role especially early in the season. Speaking of that Miami offense, when healthy I love the game that Tannenhill brings to the field. He’s got a very exciting up and coming RB in Drake who I look for to have a huge game here. With Tannenhill back in the lineup, I expect this team to bounce back from a poor season and go back to the form they showed during a 5 game win streak to end the 16 season. They’ll start this season 1-0. Dolphins 23. Titans 16
Play Chicago +7. I’m seeing an upset here! I like this Bears team. It’s year two for Mitchell Trubisky. He’s got a brand new coach who is an offensive genius. He comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree and really put together some great offensive game plans the last few years in KC. He’s got some serious underrated talent on offense. Not only do Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen return, but the Bears went out and got a serious playmaker in Allen Robinson from the Jags as well as drafting WR Anthony Miller who’s potential is through the roof. We all know the rivalry that these two teams have but it’s been one sided over the past decade. The Bears are a pathetic 3-11 against the spread in the last 14 meetings. They’ve won outright only twice in the past 5 years but both instances were in Green Bay. Lots of question marks with this packers offense. There is literally ZERO run game and with the loss of Jordy Nelson I look for less accuracy out of Rodgers. There’s a lot of revenge building in the blood of these bears and I look for them to make a statement on national tv and start this season with a franchise turning WIN! Bears 24. Packers 17.
Sat. 9/8/18 – MPSC NCAAF:
Play Stanford -6 for 2 units. This is a MONSTER double revenge game for Stanford Sat. night, as they were bested TWICE last season by this USC team. 42-24 early in the season at USC and then 31-28 in the Pac-12 Championship Game on 12/1. The Cardinal were outgained 623-342 and 501-343, respectively, in those two games. Clock management and changing those yardage totals will have been huge points of emphasis for this team. Stanford are off of a dominant 31-10 defensive performance against SDSt and we see their defense as the key in this one. It doesn’t hurt that they have an all-world RB to help eat up yards and control the clock once they grab a double-digit lead. It also doesn’t hurt that they are ready for the big games as they are 4-0 ATS L4 against teams with winning records. USC is off allowing 21 points to UNLV at home. This will be their first road test and, boy, is it a tough one. Despite the two wins, USC is just 1-4 ATS against Stanford L5. They are also 0-4 ATS L4 September games. In fact, they have been a downright miserable cover team, going just 3-12-1 ATS in their L16! They do catch the Cardinal off a poor rushing game, but, unfortunately for the Trojans, Stanford is 6-2 L8 after they rush for <100 yards in the previous game. I think defense, Love’s running abilities, and a surprising ability to move the ball through the air this season will all combine with home double revenge emotion to lift Stanford to a 34-24 victory here.
Play Arizona St +6 for 1.5 units. A lot of pundits and experts criticized the move to bring in Herm Edwards as coach into this ASU program that has made a bowl game in 5 of the last 6 seasons and is off a 7-5 season which followed a season in which they lost their final 6 games. Things were looking up! However the program decided to go another direction. It’s still weird to me they went to direction of Edwards as he’s never really been a winning head coach anywhere he’s been. However if we all know Edwards, we know that he is a heavy motivator and could really help these kids specially in a situation such as today. Michigan st, widely thought of as a possible national championship contender rolls in to Tempe tonight and I can guarantee Edwards will have his team focused and motivated to shock the world. This is a team with a bunch of veteran offensive starters which include 5 seniors. This includes QB Manny Wilkins who was awesome last week throwing for 4 TD’s. I think they’ll move the ball on MSU tonight and should score enough to keep this close and possibly pull an upset. I’m calling for a 27-24 final.
Fri. 9/7/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Tex/Oak O9 -110 for 3 Units. ***Totals of the Week*** Oakland Coliseum has a reputation for low-scoring affairs historically, and rightfully so. However, this recent homestand for the A’s has had 7 games so far that have totaled 70 runs, good for 10 per game. Both teams are basically a wash on O/U percentage overall, and bear in mind, that is with Texas usually getting slapped with high totals in their bandbox home stadium. Gallardo has made 5 road starts for Texas, though, and those games have averaged 11.2 runs per game. In his 13 starts overall, the games have averaged over 13! Gallardo is also a guy I always kept an eye on when looking at runs in the first…he is very susceptible to early runs which could set the tone for this game, as we are hoping. Each of Yovani’s L4 starts against the A’s have reached tonight’s total or more, averaging over 11 runs per game in those tilts. He receives 8+ runs per game in support, which is insane, but he doesn’t protect it, allowing over 5, explaining why 9 of his starts have gone Over! Over their L10 games overall, both teams have averaged final scores of 10+ runs. Both teams hit righties better than lefties. The Rangers have played 5 of their L6 G1 of series Over, as well as a 12-3-1 O/U record in their last 16 games after an off day. The A’s chip in a 4-1 O/U L5 Game 1s of series. They are also 4-1 in favor of the Overs in their L5 against the AL West, as well as 6-2 Over in Gossitt’s L8 against the West. I see 6-4, but this could totally go higher tonight.
Tue. 9/4/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Boston/Atlanta Under 8.5 -110. After Boston took Atlanta to task 8-2 yesterday afternoon and the teams used a combined 14 pitches (8 Bos/6 Atl), we are envisioning a tight starter-driven game tonight, more akin to how Atlanta likes to play. Prior to yesterday, the Braves had played 15 of 18 games to 9 or less runs, with only one of them reaching 9. Porcello has been solid on the road, as his ERA dips .39 points to 3.88 away from home and he is 9-3 while only allowing a homerun every 10+ innings! Newcomb, the lefty, has a night time ERA of 3.27 that is 1.41 better than his daytime ERA. He also only gives up a homerun during night games once every 10+ innings. And, while Boston has a 77-30 monster record against RHP, they are a pedestrian 18-14 against lefties this season. This probably derives from the fact that they hit 13 points worse against lefties and score nearly a full run less per game against them. The Braves, oddly, have the opposite problem, as they hit significantly worse against righties, like Porcello. With no DH for the powerful Sox and the Braves needing to bounce back, this feels like a 3-2 type game.
Tue. 9/4/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play the Mets/Dodgers OVER 8 for 2 units. As well as LA has been playing of late, it’s been exactly one week since they last played in a game where more than 6 runs have been scored. They’ve had some thrilling comeback and walkoff wins but haven’t put their offense together for an entire game since they scored 8 last Tuesday in Texas. They were completely shut down last night against DeGrom and this team is due to explode. They’ll go up against Vargas tonight and he’s been awesome for a month now! Speaking of due, he’s due to get shelled. He’s had 5 games this season where he’s allowed 5 or more runs. On the other side, Rich Hill has allowed 3 or more runs in two of his last three starts. He may be starting to wear down a bit as he hasn’t made the 7th inning since July 26th. I’m expecting both offenses to put some hits together tonight which could lead to a couple big innings. I’m looking for a 6-4 type game tonight.
Fri. 8/31/18 – Paul Logan:
***MLB Game of the Week*** Play Oakland -130. Gonna pounce on the A’s today, after dropping the first of a four game set to the M’s last night 7-1 at home. The A’s send Fiers to the mound today against Mike Leake, knowing they have to deal with Paxton tomorrow, so if they were to lose today, they could very well head into Sunday down 0-3 in a crucial series. Expect their best effort tonight at home where they are a stellar 39-27. After a loss, the A’s have a .618 win %, which is better than every team in baseball’s overall win % except Bos and NYY. In fact, they are 15-4 in their L19 games after a loss. We love the fact that the A’s are a mindboggling 28-14 in Game 2 of a series (19-7 L26). It speaks to how much they value evening up a series after a loss and locking a series win up when they take Game 1. The last 2 times the A’s had back to back losses, they won their next games 7-1 and 10-1, respectively. Both of these starters have tremendous numbers against their opposing teams today, but I want to highlight that Fiers’ team has won 5 straight games he started and are 12-3 when he pitches at home this season. The A’s should get some revenge on their recent shutout at Leake’s hands, as Seattle is 1-5 in their L6 after a win and 1-6 L7 when facing a starter with a WHIP under 1.16, which is what Fiers WHIP is. I expect a close, low-scoring one here, but I think the home team will come away with the victory to even the series. 4-2 A’s.
Wed. 8/29/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Baltimore -120 for 2.5 Units. Doesn’t this kind of feel like a World Series for the O’s?! They’ve given their fan base zero to cheer about all season, have had horrendous pitching, have been one of the worst teams in MLB. However, here they sit in late August looking for a 3 game sweep of the Blue Jays in Camden Yards, revenge for the sweep the Jays just put on them north of the border. The O’s do not have a single three-game sweep to their credit this entire season. They have only won 3 in a row once and four in a row once and both of those “streaks” involved a commonality to this series…they scored 5, 11, 9, and 6 in their four game win streak and 15, 11, and 11 in their 3 game streak. So far in this series they have posted 7 and 12. They score a lot when they win, probably because they have to with the way their staff has been. I think this will be viewed amongst the team as a huge game and we will try to ride that motivation to a good win from a bad team tonight. 7-5 O’s.
Wed. 8/29/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play The Brewers -140 for 2 Units. After getting roughed up early and being down 6-0, the Brewers fought back to make it interesting yesterday, but still came away with the loss. They shouldn’t find themselves in such a hole again with Peralta on the mound, as he just mowed this same Reds team down in a 4-0 shutout last week. The Brewers tend to figure things out after G1 of a series, as they are an astounding 29-13 in G2 of a series this season and a mind-numbing 13-4 when they play G2 off a loss in G1! Harvey is due for a poor start and he is not a guy to go deep anymore, leaving the average Reds bullpen exposed. He hasn’t hit 100 pitches in any of his L10 starts, while Peralta regularly crests 90 pitches and can greatly shorten the game for the Brewers pen. At the end of the day, this game has to mean a ton more to the Brewers and they seem to have something special about them right now. Even when they lose, they are in the game and if you give me a team I know will be in every game, I’ll feel very good playing them, especially against a bad Reds team. 6-4 Brewers.
Tue. 8/28/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Cleveland -1.5 -120 for 2 Units. We come back to the murder scene here…Minnesota comes back to Cleveland where their division hopes were killed a couple weeks back. Since that series, the entire AL Central has just been having fun and going through the motions. Carrasco comes home off his whooping at Boston and should have something to prove tonight. He is a bounceback pitcher…just look at this season against the Twins…he got yanked in the second in a 9-3 back in June and then bounced back with 7.1 IP in a 2-0 shutout of the Twins on 8/1. He then lost 3-2 going 6.1 IP and that brings us to tonight where we see him having two reasons to bounceback between the Boston loss and the revenge for Minny. Five of his last eight starts against Cleveland, he has allowed 0 or 1 run. And, yes, we are Gibson guys…he’s got a nice ERA, nice road numbers, but they just don’t win for him. They are just 12-14 when he starts and that’s just not good enough for one of your top pitchers, especially when you are on the road where you are just 22-40 (5th worst in MLB). Cleveland pulls away for a 6-3 victory.
Play MOL Vidi +1 -120 for 1 Unit. AEK Athens took the first leg on the road 2-1 last week. Now they come home where they have won 17 of 20. We see them controlling possession and being content to ride out a draw for as long as possible, knowing that even a 1-0 loss moves them on. Videoton has not lost on the road in 7 straight and have not lost by more than a goal on the road in 16 straight. Nice, smart spot to grab the dog here.
Play Dinamo Zagreb/Young Boys Over 2.5 for 1.5 Units. Yup, I’m gonna try this again. When these two met last week I was all over the Overs. The game got a goal in the 2’ and another before halftime. Then nothing could find its way in the net despite 31 attempts on goal, 11 of them on net. Young Boys should control the tempo here as they have 75 goals total in their last 20 road games for a 3.75 per game average. Zagreb is good at home and may win, but we are very confident the Bern side will get on the board at least once and probably more today. This should be an easy Overs.
Tue. 8/28/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play the Cardinals-155 for 4 units (MLB GAME OF THE MONTH!) This one should be an easy one folks. We have a Cards team who is as hot as any team in baseball right now. They’re coming off a solid series win in Colorado which anybody would tell you is not easy to do. On top of that, they were 5-1 on the road trip and now have extended their streak to 9 straight series wins! WOW! The Cards come home now where they are 11-4 under their interim manager. 19 of their final 31 games this year will be played at Busch, so the Cards are really sitting in the drivers seat for this Wild Card spot. Today they’ll get a Pirates team who is terrible on the road. Their 4th worst in the NL, with only the three last place teams having worse road records. They are 3-7 in their last 10 road games, and lost 3 out of 4 in their only trip to STL so far this season. On the mound for the Pirates will be Ivan Nova. He’s had one start against the Cards this year and got roughed up for 4 runs in only 4 innings. He’s struggled against some of the Cards key players in his career as well. Molina and Carpenter are a career 9/18 off him. Look for those two to be key in the offensive production today. For the Cards, they throw out one of the hottest pitchers in the league. Jack Flaherty heads to the mound and all he’s done recently is pitch four straight quality starts including three wins. In these 4 starts, he’s thrown 25 innings and allowed ONLY three runs while striking out 33! On top of that, he’s VERY familiar with the Pirates as this will be his 5th start against them this season. He’s allowed only 7 runs in 22 innings against Pittsburgh and has recorded 18 strikeouts. Huge home series for the Cards and I look for them to start it off with a BANG. Cards win 7-2.
Mon. 8/27/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Levante/Celta Vigo Over 2.5 -120 for 2.5 Units. Levante welcomed themselves to the new La Liga season with a huge 3-0 win in matchday 1. They host Celta and these two have played 3 of 4 over 2.5 goals. They have met 12 times in the top flight and have never played a scoreless draw. Also, Celta allowed the second most away goals in the league last year at almost 2 a game. This has the makings of at least 2-1. We see 3-2.
Play Roma/Atalanta Over 2.5 goals -125 for 1.5 Units. These two tend to provide the most offensive entertainment in Serie A. They have had a combined 15 goals in their L5 H2H meetings. They also have not played a scoreless draw since 1984…56 straight matches. Roma is off a lucky 1-0 win at Torino and should showcase their scoring today as Atalanta May not be fully focused with a Europa qualifier away midweek coming. Look for 2-1 Roma here.
Play Man U/Tottenham Over 2.5 goals -110 for 3 Units. Man U at home has a reputation of boring 1-0 wins, but they won’t likely be provided that opportunity today. Both of these teams should be back to full steam after the World Cup layoffs for so many of their key players. They played to 2-1 last year in this matchup in Manchester, where United have oddly played four of their L5 over 2.5 with a average of 3.4 goals scored per game. To help things, Spurs have played a ton of offensive road tilts…15 of their L20 on the road have hit today’s number averaging 3.25 goals per game in that stretch. Expect a real battle here…I see goals from Lukaku, Kane, and Erikson here for starters. 2-2 feels right.
Play Bilbao/Huesca Over 2.5 goals -115 for 1.5 Units. Bilbao had an exciting road win for us in the dying embers of their opener last week. They get Huesca, recently promoted and off a 2-1 home victory over Eibar. Bilbao should be ready to go at home here where their fans are always strong. They played a tough preseason lineup and will perform here against a team who is welcome to high scoring games, especially on the road. Huesca has played 12 of their L16 overall over today’s number, including 6 of 7 on the road. They have scored in 7 straight road games, while Bilbao has conceded at least one in 11 of their L13 home games. 2-1 shouldn’t be a problem here.
Sun. 8/26/18 – Jason Firestone:
Fri. 8/24/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Lyon -1.25 -150 for 2 Units. Lyon looks to bounce back from their loss to promoted Reims. They come home where they are phenomenal with 7 straight wins, 6 being clean sheets. And 12 of 13 Lyon home matches have seen at least one goal which will help us here with the -1.25. Lyon has gone 18 straight matches (since 1979) without losing to Strasbourg at home (14W, 4D), which is their longest streak against any Ligue 1 team. I see a shutout and a few goals for Lyon, with Depay shining. 3-0 Lyon.
Fri. 8/24/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play StL/Col Over 10.5 runs for 2 units. We were disappointed in the offensive output during the Rockies/Padres series but maybe that was a byproduct of them looking ahead a bit for this huge series with the Cardinals that has all kinds of playoff implications. Both teams need these games. The Cardinals have the perfect lineup to split the gaps in this biggg field and added a power bat in their old mate Matt Adams. Both teams have the expectation that they can and will win every night, as the Cards have won 17 of 21 and the Rocks 10 of 12 with 9 being come from behind wins. We see this as the major theme in this series and, for our purposes, this game as we expect a back and forth game that could even have a 9th inning lead change. Both teams rack up 10+ hits tonight and we finally get our fun typical Colorado home shootout. Someone wins 7-6.
Thurs. 8/23/18 – Paul Logan:
Play Chicago Fire +1/2 -120 for 2 Units. The Fire stink right now. However, this is a greatttt spot to grab them plus a half goal at home as they look to vault out of last place. They have lost 8 in a row overall in the league and 3 in a row at home and have NEVER lost 4 in a row at home in league play as a franchise! Also, the road team in this series has not won since 2015…that’s 11 straight matches! The Fire have scored well at home with 20 goals in 13 games. But, it’s defense that has hurt them with 23 allowed in those 13 at home. Luckily, they catch a Columbus team who has the least road goals in MLS with 7. Take the extra half a goal and we think you have a winner tonight in MLS!
Thurs. 8/23/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play the Twins/A’s OVER 9.5 for 1.5 units. Good spot for a shootout here as the A’s come off a series with Texas that was a lot less high scoring than most people would have thought. Each of the three games stayed under 10 runs. Now they get the Twins who are on an offensive roll. 5 of their last 8 games have played to over 10 with two of them that stayed under getting to 9! The A’s send Cahill to the mound today. He’s been pretty bad on the road. He’s allowed at least 4 runs in three of his last 4 road starts. Even more scary is that he hasn’t made it into the 6th inning on the road since April!!! Expect fireworks early and often today in an 8-5 type game here.
Wed. 8/22/18 – Paul Logan:
Play LAA/Ari Under 8.5 runs. I think both of these teams have the perception of being Overs machines, but they actually have both played more Unders than Overs this season and both average totals of under 9 runs/game. In this head-to-head series, the L10 games have produced just 66 total runs with no game over 11 runs and 6 of them under tonight’s total. After today, the Angels head home to pester their division mates, Houston, ending a 9 game road trip. I’m just not sure how invested they will be in this one if they get behind. Especially with how depleted the core of their lineup is without Trout and Upton. Not to mention, the Angels are 10-2 Under in their L12 interleague road games against teams >.500 and 16-4-1 Under in their L21 interleague games against teams >.500. And if we are right about the Angels impotence tonight, it will be helped by the fact that Buchholz has played in Unders to the tune of 4-1 in his L5 starts against teams <.500. The Dbacks overall have played Under to the tune of 9-2-2 L13 interleague games against righties. If we can dodge the early runs with these two teams, we see a 4-1 type game playing out here tonight!
Wed. 8/22/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play Boston (EVEN) for 3 units ***3 Unit Blockbuster*** Here we have a Red Sox team as a DOG! Scary to think a 88 win team in August could be a dog. However, going up against Carlos Carrasco is no walk in the park. His numbers have been solid all year, and especially over his last five starts. But, a look closer will reveal that his last 5 games have come against losing teams with offenses that rank at the bottom of the league. Going up against this angry Boston team today will be a challenge. The Sox have not lost three games in a row since April. Yes, it will be a tough task today especially with the Sox at the back end of the rotation. However, once again, a closer look will reveal that Brian Johnson and the Sox have won EACH of the last three games he’s started. JD Martinez, Brock Holt, and Xander Bogaerts have very solid numbers against Carrasco and should be a major part of the offensive output here. I expect the Indians to score some runs especially early but Johnson is a fighter. He will settle down and the Sox offense will hit Carrasco. Sox pull away late and win.
Tue. 8/21/18 – Paul Logan:
Play TB -1.5 -110 for 3 Units ***Game of the Week*** Odd to play a run line on a team who far and away outpaces the rest of the league in one run games. It’s not until you investigate further that you remember that Tampa has set themselves up for these type of games all year when they have used their pen as starters. We don’t have to worry about that tonight as Tampa’s all-star hurler Snell takes the mound against the second worst team in baseball. Looking deeper into their one run wins, you will find that they have won by 1 back to back 4 times this year. This would be cause for concern, after winning 1-0 at home last night, until you see that not a single one of those back to backs came at home. 3 were on the road (including at this KC team early in the season) and the other was a home away split straddling two series. As you might expect, KC has the worst run differential in the league at -218, having allowed 677 runs while scoring a league low 459. This is not a good recipe for the Royals tonight. They have just 14 wins, 2nd least in the AL, against lefties this year. Snell has been untouchable in his L3 starts with a 0.57 WHIP and a 0.64 ERA. The Royals should have no shot, as their HR and BA numbers against lefties are significantly worse than against righties. The Rays are fantastic at home (35-24) and have won the L5 in this head to head matchup. The Rays are also 14-6 in G2 of a series after winning G1. I could bore you all night with great trends to back this up, but I’ll leave you with my favorite…The Rays are 21-6 L27 when their opponent scored 2 or less the night before, while the Royals are 6-18 L24 when they score 2 or less in the previous game. The Rays don’t let down and the Royals don’t bounce back. The Rays run line is our Game of the Week!
Tue. 8/21/18 – Jason Firestone:
Play the Brewers/Reds OVER 9 for 2 Units (Top Play on Card)
It took some time for the Brewers offense to get going last night but we knew it would as they returned home after a long trip. Two runs late in the game to pull away for the win should give that offense some much needed momentum. They’ll tee off tonight against Sal Romano who has allowed 4 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. He’s also coming off a shelling by Cleveland as they torched him for 6 runs in not even two innings of work in his last start. This is a series that typically sees the over play out. In 11 meetings this season, the Reds and Brewers have played to at least 9 runs SEVEN TIMES! I expect some runs out of the Reds here as well as Guerra has been awful in his last three road starts allowing 17 runs in only 12 innings! He’s also allowed 23 hits over that span. He’s been hit around hard outside of Cincy, and I expect more of the same tonight. I’m seeing 12+ runs here tonight
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